America's Trump 2028 Problem

If the threat of violence keeps us from applying the constitution to Trump now, how will we do so later?

If Donald Trump retakes the White House in January 2025 and is still alive in 2028, he will seek a third term in office, despite the 22nd Amendment’s clear prohibition on any person serving more than two terms as president.

Trump and his adherents will argue that the 22nd Amendment is an obscure constitutional provision that has never once in American history been enforced;¹ that it does not apply to Trump² as he will be seeking only his second consecutive term and the amendment was written in response to a president (FDR) having served four consecutive terms.³ They will note that some of America’s founders – Hamilton! Madison! – favored lifetime presidential terms.⁴

These will be specious and spurious arguments, every one of them.

But millions of Americans, many of them prone to violence, will agree with Trump. He will have spent four more years readying his supporters to wage literal war on his behalf and issuing strategic pardons intended to convince his followers that they can commit violence he favors with impunity. And he will be commander in chief of the United States military.⁵

At that point, will the elites of academia, law, and politics who now insist we must set aside the 14th Amendment because it is “obscure” and “rarely-used” and because millions of people disagree with applying it to Trump and those people might resort to violence in the streets if they don’t get their way … will these elites of academia, law, and politics dare insist on applying the 22nd Amendment to Trump, even as he echoes arguments they now make against the 14th Amendment?

I doubt it.

I’d sure like to see one of them explain why next time will be different.

But I won’t hold my breath.

NOTE: I drafted the post above a couple weeks ago, as a brief follow-up to this post. But I didn’t send it because it felt like a point I should’ve just included in the original piece, unworthy of a separate appearance in your inbox, and because I figured people would dismiss it as hyperbolic. Then this morning I saw that yesterday, Trump suggested that if he becomes president he’ll serve ““four years and beyond.”⁶ And I still haven’t seen any of the we-must-appease-Trump-to-avoid-violence crowd address the simple question: Until when? So here I am, asking it again.

So when someone insists that the Supreme Court must overturn Colorado’s decision not to grant Trump an exemption from the 14th Amendment because otherwise his supporters might commit acts of violence, the first question you should ask them is simple: When does this appeasement end? When will the threat of violence be less, or easier to stand up to?

And what if it isn’t?

1. True but irrelevant

2. Extraordinarily false

3. True but irrelevant

4. True but irrelevant, plus those guys were wrong about a lot of things

5. Flashback:

6. Because Elon Musk is a ridiculous person, I can’t embed the video here, but you can watch it on Twitter.